Consequences of climate change for European agricultural productivity, land use and policy

This paper reviews the knowledge on effects of climate change on agricultural productivity in Europe and the consequences for policy and research. Warming is expected to lead to a northward expansion of suitable cropping areas and a reduction of the growing period of determinate crops (e.g. cereals), but an increase for indeterminate crops (e.g. root crops). Increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations will directly enhance plant productivity and also increase resource use efficiencies.

In northern areas climate change may produce positive effects on agriculture through introduction of new crop species and varieties, higher crop production and expansion of suitable areas for crop cultivation. Disadvantages may be an increase in the need for plant protection, the risk of nutrient leaching and the turnover of soil organic matter. In southern areas the disadvantages will predominate. The possible increase in water shortage and extreme weather events may cause lower harvestable yields, higher yield variability and a reduction in suitable areas for traditional crops. These effects may reinforce the current trends of intensification of agriculture in northern and western Europe and extensification in the Mediterranean and southeastern parts of Europe.

Policy will have to support the adaptation of European agriculture to climate change by encouraging the flexibility of land use, crop production, farming systems etc. In doing so, it is necessary to consider the multifunctional role of agriculture, and to strike a variable balance between economic, environmental and social functions in different European regions. Policy will also need to be concerned with agricultural strategies to mitigate climate change through a reduction in emissions of methane and nitrous oxide, an increase in carbon sequestration in agricultural soils and the growing of energy crops to substitute fossil energy use. The policies to support adaptation and mitigation to climate change will need to be linked closely to the development of agri-environmental schemes in the European Union Common Agricultural Policy.

Research will have further to deal with the effect on secondary factors of agricultural production, on the quality of crop and animal production, of changes in frequency of isolated and extreme weather events on agricultural production, and the interaction with the surrounding natural ecosystems. There is also a need to study combined effects of adaptation and mitigation strategies, and include assessments of the consequences on current efforts in agricultural policy to develop a sustainable agriculture that also preserves environmental and social values in the rural society.     

El Niño induced local extinction of coral reef bryozoan species from Northern Bahia, Brazil

The 1997-1998 El-Niño Southern Oscillation was the most severe on record and dramatically impacted corals worldwide. However, the effect of this event on the associated community of reef organisms has received much less attention. The composition of the bryozoan assemblage from the coral reefs of Northern Bahia, Brazil were monitored annually from 1995 to 2000, allowing the investigation of the effects of this large-scale stressor on an important, diverse, yet understudied component of the coral reef system. Bryozoan samples (35 replicates/reef) were collected during April/May from four shallow bank reefs (10-40 m depth) located a few kilometres off the coast, together with measurements of the associated environmental parameters. Currently 157 species have been recorded from the study area, but significant reductions in density and diversity were apparent between pre- and post El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years, multivariate analysis denoting significant changes in assemblage composition. A total of 61 species were unrecorded following the 1997-1998 ENSO event (22 species from 1997; 25 further species from 1998 and 14 more from 1999). These included several species endemic to Brazil, suggesting that the 1997-1998 ENSO has had a marked influence on the reef bryozoan community, resulting in the local extinction of several species. Bryozoan mortalities were probably initiated by elevated temperatures, but continued disappearance of species for 2 years after ENSO suggests other indirect factors are also influential. These results demonstrate that ENSO events can have severe long-term impacts on the biodiversity of coral reefs, with important conservation consequences.     

东北农牧交错带旱涝特征对气候变化的响应

[目的]从旱涝灾害角度分析气候变化对东北农牧交错带的影响,对该区的气候变化和旱涝特征进行研究,为充分利用气候资源,合理调配水资源,提高灾害应变能力提供科学依据。[方法]统计1960—2011年东北农牧交错带21个气象台站的逐月气温、降水资料,应用Mann—Kendall气候突变检验法、标准化降水指数(SPI)、样条函数插值法对该带旱涝状况的时空分布进行了分析。[结果](1)东北农牧交错带气候呈现出明显的暖干化趋势,SPI3表明春、夏、秋三季干旱事件增多,21世纪以来,春旱事件较为频繁,冬季降水略微增加;(2)气温突变发生在1988年,突变后,干旱的比例增加了20.7%,涝的比例增加了9.3%,降水处于"正常"的年份则大幅度减少,对该区极为不利;(3)SPI12低值中心由科尔沁沙地向东北延伸到松嫩平原,干旱面积有大幅度增加的趋势,东北农牧交错带中南部旱化较为严重。[结论]东北农牧交错带暖干化的趋势给该区农牧业带来不利影响,受旱地区应及时启动干旱预警紧急方案,开展抗旱工作。     

CO2浓度倍增及气候变暖对农业生产影响的诊断与评估

模拟实验研究了CO2 浓度倍增对我国主要粮食作物 (小麦、水稻、玉米、大豆 )和蔬菜 (大白菜、黄瓜 )生长发育与产量形成的影响以及气候变暖对农业实用技术和农业气候条件的影响 ,进行农业诊断和评估 ,并提出应对CO2 浓度倍增与气候变暖的农业适应策略     

Climate and Dirofilaria infection in Europe

Climatic changes, together with an increase in the movement of cats and dogs across Europe, have caused an increase in the geographical range of several vector borne parasites like Dirofilaria, and in the risk of infection for animals and humans. The present paper reviews the effects of climate and other global drivers on Dirofilaria immitis and Dirofilaria repens infections in Europe and the possible implications on the transmission and control of these mosquito-borne nematodes. In the last several years, growing degree day (GDD)-based forecast models, which use wide or local scale temperature data, have been developed to predict the occurrence and seasonality of Dirofilaria in different parts of the world. All these models are based on the fact that: there is a threshold of 14 °C below which Dirofilaria development will not proceed; and there is a requirement of 130 GDD for larvae to reach infectivity and a maximum life expectancy of 30 days for a vector mosquito. The output of these models predicts that the summer temperatures (with peaks in July) are sufficient to facilitate extrinsic incubation of Dirofilaria even at high latitudes. The global warming projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggests that warm summers suitable for Dirofilaria transmission in Europe will be the rule in the future decades and if the actual trend of temperature increase continues, filarial infection should spread into previously infection-free areas. These factors not only favour incubation of Dirofilaria, but also impact on mosquito species. Recent findings have also demonstrated that Aedes albopictus is now considered to be an important, competent vector of Dirofilaria infections. This mosquito species could spread from southern to northern European countries in the near future, changing the epidemiological patterns of dirofilariosis both in humans and animals.     

The potential for soil carbon sequestration in three tropical dryland farming systems of Africa and Latin America: A modelling approach

Historically, agriculturally induced CO₂ release from soils has contributed to rising levels in the atmosphere. However, by using appropriate management, soils can be turned into carbon sinks. Many of the dryland regions of the world are characterised by degraded soils, a high incidence of poverty and a low capacity to invest in agriculture. Two well-proven soil organic matter models (CENTURY 4.0 and RothC-26 3) were used two explore the effects of modifying agricultural practices to increase soil carbon stocks. The changes to land management were chosen to avoid any significant increase in energy input whilst using technologies that would be available without radically altering the current agricultural methodology. Case studies were selected from dryland farming systems in Nigeria, Sudan and Argentina. Modelling showed that it would be possible to make alterations within the structure of the current farming systems to convert these soils from carbon sources to net sinks. Annual rates of carbon sequestration in the range 0.08–0.17 Mg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ averaged over the next 50 years could be obtained. The most effective practices were those that maximised the input of organic matter, particularly farmyard manure (up to 0.09 Mg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹), maintaining trees (up to 0.15 Mg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹) and adopting zero tillage (up to 0.04 Mg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹). Verification of these predictions will require experimental data collected from field studies.     

Structural characteristics of a low Arctic tundra ecosystem and the retreat of the Arctic fox

We conducted a large-scale, campaign-based survey in Finnmark, northern Norway to evaluate the proposition that declining Arctic fox populations at the southern margin of the Arctic tundra biome result from fundamental changes in the state of the ecosystem due to climatic warming. We utilized the fact that the decline of the Arctic fox in Finnmark has been spatially heterogeneous by contrasting ecosystem state variables between regions and landscape areas (within regions) with and without recent Arctic fox breeding.Within the region of Varanger peninsula, which has the highest number of recorded dens and the most recent breeding records of Arctic fox, we found patterns largely consistent with a previously proposed climate-induced, bottom-up trophic cascade that may exclude the Arctic fox from tundra. Landscape areas surrounding dens without recent Arctic breeding were here more productive than areas with recent breeding in terms of biomass of palatable and climate sensitive plants, the number of insectivorous passerines and predatory skuas. Even the frequency of unspecified fox scats was the highest in landscape areas where arctic fox breeding has ceased, consistent with an invasion of the competitively dominant red fox. The comparisons made at the regional level were not consistent with the results within the Varanger region, possibly due to different causal factors or to deficiencies in Arctic fox monitoring at a large spatial scale. Thus long-term studies and adequate monitoring schemes with a large-scale design needs to be initiated to better elucidate the link between climate, food web dynamics and their relations to Arctic and red foxes.     

Nitrous oxide emissions from fertilised grassland: A 2-year study of the effects of N fertiliser form and environmental conditions

The aim was to investigate the effects of different N fertilisers on nitrous oxide (N₂O) flux from agricultural grassland, with a view to suggesting fertiliser practices least likely to cause substantial N₂O emissions, and to assess the influence of soil and environmental factors on the emissions. Replicate plots on a clay loam grassland were fertilised with ammonium sulphate (AS), urea (U), calcium nitrate (CN), ammonium nitrate (AN), or cattle slurry supplemented with AN on three occasions in each of 2 years. Frequent measurements were made of N₂O flux and soil and environmental variables. The loss of N₂O-N as a percentage of N fertiliser applied was highest from the supplemented slurry (SS) treatment and U, and lowest from AS. The temporal pattern of losses was different for the different fertilisers and between years. Losses from U were lower than those from AN and CN in the spring, but higher in the summer. The high summer fluxes were associated with high water-filled pore space (WFPS) values. Fluxes also rose steeply with temperature where WFPS or mineral N values were not limiting. Total annual loss was higher in the 2nd year, probably because of the rainfall pattern: the percentage losses were 2.2, 1.4, 1.2, 1.1 and 0.4 from SS, U, AN, CN and AS, respectively. Application of U in the spring and AN twice in the summer in the 2nd year gave an average emission factor of 0.8% – lower than from application of either individual fertiliser. We suggest that similar varied fertilisation practices, modified according to soil and crop type and climatic conditions, might be employed to minimise N₂O emissions from agricultural land. Received: 30 August 1996     

陶瓷管负压控温栽培系统在番茄日光温室冬季生产中的应用效果

设施蔬菜冬季生产中，土壤温度低是蔬菜生长的一个限制因子。该文在番茄冬季生产中应用微多孔陶瓷管负压加温栽培系统，试验表明通过循环温水利用同一根陶瓷管边灌水边加温是完全可行的；加温处理白天、夜间平均温度分别比不加温处理的高出2.7℃，1.2℃。加温处理的植株长势、果实中可溶性糖、滴定酸度的含量和糖酸比、产量、特别是前期产量显著高于不加温处理。在温室冬季生产中仅仅对土壤进行加温就可显著促进植株生长，提高果实的产量和品质。